Those who attentively observe the world economic news must have noticed how much the attitude to China has recently changed.
Only yesterday the world press teemed with articles forecasting China would save the world economy and take a leading position in the world. The former statement caused everybody’s enthusiasm while the latter was not so univocal and even seemed threatening for many. Now everything has radically changed. The connotation of the comments is not that pathetic, and more authors tend to impart negative color to this theme in their articles. China – from the savior of the world economy – has turned into its almost main threat. They report it quite in this key – the time-bomb.
Let’s see what’s happened? To tell the truth it’s hard to find an unambiguous answer because Chinese economic policy is being criticized from quite different or even opposite perspectives. And the fact that these perspectives are suggested simultaneously proves the idea that tacit taboo on this critics has been removed and each in his own way started writing about it.
This taboo on critics of China, if any, who, why and when put and removed it? Let’s leave it for conspiracy specialists who are good at that, and try to understand the underlying reasons of today’s claims to China.
Firstly, these claims are from those who believe that the world economy is coming out from crisis and the forced devaluation of the yuan is clogging the process of recovery of American and European economies. It’s almost an official position and if we analyze the last statements of the official establishment of the USA and Europe we’ll see the traces of just that very opinion. This opinion is interesting for the following points. If the world economy does really come from crisis it does it not without China’s help. Remember the first eight months many countries have not seen the way-out and set hopes only upon China which got not a word of gratitude for that. The world economy happened to come out from crisis by itself. Many observers are very vague about the reasons of such radical turn, and speak of some ‘collective efforts’ behind which individual efforts of the Chinese government are definitely hidden. And it goes without saying that all these collective efforts were nothing but piecrust declarations whereas half trillion dollar credits extended by China bank system is an undeniable fact. But today it is recommended that China should write off all these huge sums for dead loss as these credits were extended on expansion of export production, and strengthening of the yuan will whittle away the export potential of China. It’s the extra sacrifice China should put on the altar of collective efforts. It’s nobody’s business what will happen to millions of the Chinese who’ll be and who are already dismissed. As well as what will the possible social burst result in. The world economy is surely more important and – from the perspective of many people – without China is more dangerous.
The second perspective is a variation of the first one. The difference is only in that its supporters don’t agree that the world economy is coming out from crisis. They say that all hopes on China turned to be vain, and China’s protectionist policy only hinders other countries from recovery. And but for China they would have long come out from crisis. This position is more consistent and doesn’t imply any dubious reticence. Why, if crisis continues there’s nothing to thank China for. Moreover, in terms of ‘collective efforts’ they should be responsible almost for all the consequences. Official authorities of the USA and Europe would be glad to share this opinion but they cannot admit that crisis continues. That’s why it’s the independent experts who are to develop this point of view.
It seems that neither the first nor the second perspective reflect the reasons of such pressure on China. Thus, we need the third idea to cross all t’s. According to this point of view there’s a huge estate bubble in China now that is just about bursting, and if it does its impact will be more devastating for the whole world. The signs of the Chinese bubble are evident. For Chinese the leadership they are evident too. And it’s obvious that the USA and Europe are trying to separate from China not to be splashed with. It’s doubtful that they will manage to do it but there’s no harm in trying.
So, what do China think? Why did they plunge into this gamble in which its partners try to leave it alone with all the problems. It looks as if China had swallowed the old propagandistic bait made from talks about Chinese role in the world economic drama and the position of a leading lady in the troupe after the performance ends.
Thus, it seems our numbers of the former hosts of the safe haven will grow soon.